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Latest MLB NewsALCS Game 4 Betting Odds and Preview
Sportsbook.com betting odds: New York -153, Texas +143 Total: 9.5
After being shut down by Cliff Lee on Monday, the Yankees rest their Game 4 hopes on the shoulders of A.J. Burnett (10-15, 5.26 ERA). Tommy Hunter will get the start for Texas (13-4, 3.73 ERA). So far the baseball betting public at Sportsbook.com is split as 51% of the money is on the Yankees.
Burnett’s disappointing season has been well documented. The right-hander has struggled with his control for the better part of the 2010 season and was left out of the ALDS rotation. As a result, Burnett hasn’t pitched since October 2. His last three starts of the regular season were ones to forget, as he went 0-2 with a 7.94 ERA.
The Yankees have lost five of Burnett’s past six starts and went 13-20 (.394) in games he started this year. He’s pitched fairly well in his career against Texas, going 4-2 with a 3.45 ERA in 11 starts. In 2010, he went 1-0 with a 2.50 ERA in three starts against the Rangers.
Hunter comes into the matchup after taking the loss in Game 4 of the ALDS against Tampa Bay. He went four innings and allowed three runs (two earned) on six hits while striking out seven. Hunter started the season on fire, winning his first nine decisions before finishing out 4-4. Texas has dropped three of his last four starts. Hunter faced the Yankees only once this year, a September 11 matchup against Burnett in Arlington. Hunter gave up two runs over five innings as the Rangers prevailed 7-6.
This MLB betting trend found at Sportsbook.com points towards the Yankees as being the value bet.
Play Against - Road teams (TEXAS) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL, starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest. (72-33 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.6%, +38.7 units. Rating = 3*).
With the most generous baseball dime lines in the business, it is no wonder everyone bets on baseball at Sportsbook.com.
MLB: Crazy-good pitching matchup in Colorado Thursday
Thursday’s Major League Baseball betting board boasts some interesting starting pitcher matchups, none more scintillating that that in Colorado, where the aces of the Rockies and Cardinals will square off in a matinee. It’s Ubaldo Jimenez (14-1) for the hosts and Chris Carpenter (9-2) for the visitors. What makes this even more interesting is that both pitchers come off arguably their worst outings of the season, and will look to turn it around in their final starts before the all-star break. Jimenez is a -140 favorite according to oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com, but most of the key betting info indicates that is an overpricing.
For all the momentum the Colorado Rockies have heading into their series finale with the St. Louis Cardinals, their best player is lacking in that area. All-Star pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez tries to regain his dominant form and help the Rockies sweep a three-game set from the Cardinals on Thursday afternoon.
The Rockies (46-38) have rallied in dramatic fashion for both their victories in this series. After erasing a six-run deficit with a nine-run ninth inning Tuesday, Colorado gradually wiped away a 5-0 fifth-inning deficit to win 8-7 on Chris Iannetta's leadoff homer in the ninth Wednesday.
Colorado's surge could continue if Jimenez (14-1, 2.27 ERA) reverts to form. The right-hander has struggled in his last three outings - giving up 17 runs and 19 hits in 17 2-3 innings - after a phenomenal 14-start stretch to open 2010 in which he conceded 13 runs in 101 1-3 innings.
Jimenez, in fact, may have endured what likely will be his worst single inning of the year Saturday. San Francisco reached him for seven runs in the third, but the Rockies bailed out their staff ace by rallying to take a lead before eventually losing 11-8. Jimenez allowed five hits and walked four in six innings, but he still has a personal eight-game winning streak.
Despite his recent woes, a victory would make Jimenez the first pitcher to have 15 wins by the All-Star break since David Wells did so for Toronto in 2000. Greg Maddux was the last NL pitcher to accomplish the feat back in 1988 with the Cubs.
Jimenez is 1-2 with a 4.32 ERA in four starts against the Cardinals (45-39).
Chris Carpenter (9-2, 3.16) looks to help the Cardinals avoid the sweep. The right-hander had a personal five-game winning streak snapped Saturday when Milwaukee tagged him for eight runs and nine hits in three-plus innings of a 12-5 defeat, pushing his ERA up nearly one-half run following his worst outing of the year.
Carpenter did not get a decision in his only start against the Rockies last year despite limiting them to one run in seven innings. He is a phenomenal 3-0 with a 0.75 ERA in five outings versus Colorado, going 1-0 with a 0.63 ERA in two starts at Coors Field.
There is a fairly strong FoxSheets Super Situation indicating that the edge in this battle of the aces could go to Carpenter. Take a look:
• Play Against - Any team (COLORADO) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season (NL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 80%. (39-19 since 1997.) (67.2%, +20.3 units. Rating = 2*)
The StatFox Power Ratings show that St. Louis should be a -105 favorite, not an underdog, so the value really seems to be on that side of the line.
Carpenter has proven to be a good stop gap for his team on the road when dealing with defeat:
• CARPENTER is 54-31 (+22.7 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss since 1997. (Team's Record) The average score was CARPENTER 5.6, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*)
Still, the Cardinals ace will need to slow a Colorado offense that has pounded out 83 hits in the L6 games while leaving 79 men on base.
Game start time is 3:10 PM ET from Coors Field.
MLB: Betting System shows Tampa Bay breaking cold stretch
It was bound to happen; Tampa Bay (32-15, +9.2 units) is officially in their first slump of the year, having been swept at home by Boston in three games. The Rays’ “Sox” homestand continues and they will look for much better outcomes against the team from Chicago. In the first of the 4-game set on Thursday, Tampa plays as a -177 favorite according to Sportsbook.com, and is backed by a powerful betting system.
The Rays offense has been the culprit of their failures, touching home plate just four times against the Red Sox and have scored more than four runs only once in their last six tries.
Tampa Bay has fallen to third in the American League in runs scored in part because their team batting average is now seventh (.256), with players like B.J. Upton slumping (batting .146 in his last 23 games).
Starting pitcher Jeff Niemann (4-0, 2.54 ERA) would certainly appreciate an offensive lift since he has yet to register a win at Tropicana Field this season despite 2.95 ERA in his four starts. Though Tampa Bay has scored 19 runs in Niemann’s starting assignments at the Trop, 14 of those runs have come after he’s been taken out of the game, giving him no decisions. At least the Rays bullpen continues to excel with 3.41 ERA and 82.4 percent save percentage.
Ozzie Guillen and the White Sox (20-26, -9.6 units) wish they had the kind of problems Tampa Bay has. Guillen’s club has not hit all season as evidenced by .240 batting average (13th) and ranking 10th in the AL in runs scored (4.2) and on-base percentage (.316).
Guillen might be a little testy coming into this four-game series having been tossed from yesterday’s win in Cleveland. The Sox skipper is also tired of witnessing tonight starting pitcher Gavin Floyd (2-4, 6.31) not pitching up to capabilities.
“He is not a kid anymore (referring to Floyd), he’s not a guy we need to teach or be careful what he is going to do, how many pitches he’s going to throw,” manager Ozzie Guillen said. He has stuff to win 20 games; it’s about making him believe that.”
Floyd does have good numbers in a couple areas with a better than 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio (43-19) and has only been taken deep four times in nine starts. His downfall has been a combination of leaving the ball up in the zone and catching too much of the plate, being tagged for 66 hits in 51 1/3 innings.
The Rays opened as -165 money line favorites and the morning line has them up to -177 at Sportsbook.com. Has the word on this superb system gotten out?
Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175, with a mediocre AL team batting average of .260 or less, against a club with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), whose starting pitcher gives up one home run or less every other start.
Betting against teams like the Pale Hose in this spot has been profitable with 43-9, 82.7 percent record the previous five seasons. Tampa Bay usually responds well to poor pitching performances like yesterday with 13-2 mark in home games after allowing nine runs or more over the last three seasons.
Rays’ pitcher Niemann has enjoyed excellent success against below average competition and is 18-4 pitching against a team with a losing record since last year. (Rays Record)
For the skeptical sports betting participant, this should be the knockout punch –Manager Joe Maddon’s squad is 18-0 at home after scoring four runs or less three straight games since 2008.